CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 03/10 - 06Z MON 04/10 2004
ISSUED: 02/10 17:23Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

There are no thunderstorms forecast.

SYNOPSIS

Extensive elongated upper low will persist over the N Atlantic ... with intense peripheral vort max crossing the British Isles late in the FCST period. GFS 12Z and previous GFS runs all advertise strong vort max ejecting from the Channel region eastwards across S-central Europe/N Mediterranean into the Balkans during the day ... in disagreement with GME ... BOLAM ... NMM and MESO ETA solutions where this feature does not appear. Intense large-scale SFC low is expected to intensify and expand eastwards a bit in response to the UK vort max. High pressure is progged to persist across NE Europe and NW Russia.

Today's FCST is quite uncertain ATTM and an update will be issued if necessary as later OBS become available.

DISCUSSION

...S-central Europe ... N Mediterranean...
Uncertainty exists with respect to convective development over S-central Europe ... the N Mediterranean and the Balkans ... due mainly to uncertainty regarding the development of the above mentioned vort max.

Thermodynamic profiles over the central Mediterranean at Saturday 12Z have been nearly neutral ... with little modification required to allow for deep convection ... and if the vort max moves into the central Med and the Balkans ... a few TSTMS could be initiated in the afternoon/evening hours..

Further north over S Germany ... Austria and the Chech Republic ... deep instability is unlikely to develop ... but a few shallow showers and isolated TSTMS could occur in case strong DCVA overspreads the area as supported by GFS runs.

Given these uncertainties ... will not outlook TSTMS ATTM and await later development.

...UK...
Indications are that deep CAPE will not be available ahead of the cold front over the British Isles early Monday morning ... but a few shallow TSTMS could occur ... posing a some severe threat given immense shear. Later OBS have to be awaited to specify severe TSTM threat.

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